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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 14.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9%), while for a St Louis City win it was 0-1 (4.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | St Louis City |
66.89% ( 1.88) | 19.07% ( -0.21) | 14.04% ( -1.67) |
| Both teams to score 52.15% ( -3.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.15% ( -2.62) | 40.85% ( 2.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.77% ( -2.73) | 63.23% ( 2.73) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.69% ( -0.26) | 11.31% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.05% ( -0.57) | 35.95% ( 0.57) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.8% ( -3.88) | 41.2% ( 3.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.27% ( -3.63) | 77.73% ( 3.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | St Louis City |
| 2-0 @ 11.06% ( 1.06) 1-0 @ 10.15% ( 1.07)2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.69)3-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 4.38% ( 0.34)4-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.41)5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.24)5-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.93% Total : 66.88% | 1-1 @ 9% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.54)2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.51)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.24)Other @ 0.12% Total : 19.07% | 0-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.42)0-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.31)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.27)Other @ 1.62% Total : 14.04% |
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