SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 30 | -14 | 31 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 30 | -12 | 30 |
| 10 | DC United | 30 | -28 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 30 | -8 | 35 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 42.06%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | New England Revolution |
42.06% ( 0.01) | 25.14% ( 0) | 32.79% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.46% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53% ( -0.01) | 47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.75% ( -0) | 69.24% ( 0.01) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.71% ( 0) | 22.29% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.25% ( 0.01) | 55.74% ( -0.01) |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.65% ( -0.01) | 27.35% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.19% ( -0.01) | 62.8% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 1-0 @ 9.15% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.87% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.46% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.44% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.29% 4-2 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.32% Total : 42.06% | 1-1 @ 11.86% 0-0 @ 6.1% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.14% | 0-1 @ 7.9% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.69% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.12% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.32% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.5% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.08% Other @ 2.97% Total : 32.8% |
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