SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Dallas | 28 | 7 | 42 |
| 2 | Minnesota United | 26 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | -1 | 38 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 26 | -8 | 30 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | -11 | 26 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 27 | -15 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 2-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
55.32% ( -0.23) | 22.94% ( 0.05) | 21.74% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 54.54% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.74% ( -0.01) | 45.26% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.4% ( -0.01) | 67.6% ( 0.01) |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.78% ( -0.08) | 16.22% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.28% ( -0.15) | 45.72% ( 0.15) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( 0.16) | 34.91% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.35% ( 0.17) | 71.65% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 1-0 @ 10.29% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.86% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.37% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.68% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.72% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.43% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 55.31% | 1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.93% | 0-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.02% Total : 21.74% |
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