SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 30 | 10 | 53 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 6 | 41 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 6 | 41 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 6 | Toronto | 30 | -6 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.69%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 25.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | New England Revolution |
49.69% ( 0.19) | 24.55% ( 0.02) | 25.76% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 53.97% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.76% ( -0.26) | 48.24% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.61% ( -0.24) | 70.39% ( 0.25) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.56% ( -0.03) | 19.45% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.71% ( -0.04) | 51.29% ( 0.05) |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( -0.31) | 33% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.41% ( -0.35) | 69.59% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | New England Revolution |
| 1-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.7% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 49.69% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.29% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.45% Total : 25.76% |
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