SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 24 | 61 |
| 2 | Dallas | 32 | 11 | 50 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 3 | 45 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 32 | -12 | 34 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | -10 | 33 |
| 10 | DC United | 31 | -31 | 27 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 73.52%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 10.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 3-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.28%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 1-2 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
73.52% ( 0.46) | 15.76% ( -0.29) | 10.71% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 53.72% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.41% ( 0.9) | 33.58% ( -0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.6% ( 1.02) | 55.39% ( -1.02) |
| Los Angeles FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.15% ( 0.31) | 7.84% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.19% ( 0.79) | 27.8% ( -0.79) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.29% ( 0.31) | 41.7% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.82% ( 0.27) | 78.18% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
| 2-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 8.99% ( 0)1-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 5.72% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.06)5-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 2.19% ( 0.07)6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.06)5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.05)6-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.23% Total : 73.52% | 1-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.05% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 15.76% | 1-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 2.86% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.31% Total : 10.71% |
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