Forget how well NYCFC have played in Montreal in the past, because this is not the same Pigeons side from previous years, and the summer transfer window cannot come soon enough for this group, who have looked indecisive in the attacking third most of the season.
Montreal are at their best when playing in front of their fans, and we believe their defensive shape will be able to handle an NYCFC side that must be feeling pretty low at the moment.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 54.03%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 20.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
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