SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
50.18% ( -0.01) | 21.98% ( 0.11) | 27.85% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 64.83% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.25% ( -0.61) | 34.75% ( 0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.29% ( -0.69) | 56.71% ( 0.7) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.77% ( -0.22) | 14.23% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.03% ( -0.43) | 41.97% ( 0.44) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.59% ( -0.38) | 24.41% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.16% ( -0.54) | 58.84% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.09% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.62% Total : 50.18% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.39% Total : 21.98% | 1-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.45% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.69% Total : 27.85% |
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