The two sides are separated by just two points, having both made inconsistent starts to the MLS season, and a draw is therefore the most likely result on Saturday evening.
However, if either team manages to come away with the three points, it will probably be the hosts, having gone undefeated at the Yankee Stadium so far this season.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Nashville SC had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.86%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Nashville SC win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
0) 
-0) 
