Having tasted victory for the first time in 2023 last weekend, we expect New York City FC to secure back-to-back wins when DC United visit Yankee Stadium, while Rooney's side look set to concede more than one goal for the third time in four outings.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 70.81%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for DC United had a probability of 11.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.27%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (3.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
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