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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 37.91%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | New York City FC |
36.83% ( 0.1) | 25.26% ( 0) | 37.91% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 56.83% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.15% ( -0.02) | 46.85% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.9% ( -0.02) | 69.1% ( 0.02) |
| Houston Dynamo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( 0.05) | 24.9% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.48% ( 0.07) | 59.52% ( -0.07) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.68% ( -0.07) | 24.32% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.29% ( -0.09) | 58.7% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 36.83% | 1-1 @ 11.9% 0-0 @ 6.06% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 8.56% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 1.91% Total : 37.91% |
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