New York Red Bulls are a much-improved side under the helm of Lesesne, and they have won their last two MLS home games, but Orlando City have made a habit out of drawing against decent opposition in recent weeks.
As such, we expect the spoils to be shared on Saturday in what is likely to be a low-scoring game, given NY Red Bulls' stellar defensive record.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 53.88%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 19.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.28%) and 2-1 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (8%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.12) 
