SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 24 | 3 | 40 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 24 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 23 | 5 | 33 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Chicago Fire | 24 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Orlando City | 24 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Orlando City had a probability of 23.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for a Orlando City win it was 0-1 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Orlando City |
50.18% ( -2.06) | 25.82% ( 0.38) | 23.99% ( 1.68) |
| Both teams to score 48.4% ( 0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.29% ( 0.05) | 54.71% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.97% ( 0.04) | 76.03% ( -0.05) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.16% ( -0.86) | 21.84% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.93% ( -1.32) | 55.06% ( 1.31) |
| Orlando City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.93% ( 1.63) | 38.07% ( -1.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.16% ( 1.54) | 74.83% ( -1.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Orlando City |
| 1-0 @ 12.65% ( -0.36) 2-0 @ 9.62% ( -0.53)2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.41)3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.17)3-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.1% Total : 50.18% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.8% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.33) 1-2 @ 5.9% ( 0.35)0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.32)1-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.15)Other @ 1.59% Total : 23.99% |
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