SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 51.71%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 24.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Toronto win was 0-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| DC United | Draw | Toronto |
51.71% ( -2.19) | 23.89% ( 0.54) | 24.4% ( 1.65) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.41% ( -0.67) | 46.59% ( 0.67) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.14% ( -0.64) | 68.86% ( 0.63) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.98% ( -1.06) | 18.02% ( 1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.1% ( -1.85) | 48.89% ( 1.85) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.75% ( 1.08) | 33.25% ( -1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.13% ( 1.17) | 69.86% ( -1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| DC United | Draw | Toronto |
| 1-0 @ 10.26% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 8.8% ( -0.37)3-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.26)3-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.4)3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 2.15% ( -0.25)4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.51% Total : 51.7% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.89% | 0-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.32)0-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.37% Total : 24.4% |
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