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National League North | Gameweek 25
Dec 26, 2023 at 3pm UK
The Impact Arena

Alfreton
2 - 1
Buxton

Thewlis (40' pen.), Salmon (81')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Elliott (27')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Alfreton Town and Buxton.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Boston 3-1 Alfreton
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 0-0 Scunthorpe
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 46.22%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.

Result
Alfreton TownDrawBuxton
46.22% (-0.056000000000004 -0.06) 25.24% (0.00099999999999767 0) 28.53% (0.055 0.05)
Both teams to score 53.97% (0.035000000000004 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.72% (0.029000000000003 0.03)49.28% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.66% (0.026 0.03)71.33% (-0.02600000000001 -0.03)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.67% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)21.33% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.71% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)54.29% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Buxton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.6% (0.055999999999997 0.06)31.4% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.23% (0.064 0.06)67.77% (-0.063999999999993 -0.06)
Score Analysis
    Alfreton Town 46.22%
    Buxton 28.53%
    Draw 25.24%
Alfreton TownDrawBuxton
1-0 @ 10.34% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.26% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.99% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.77% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
3-0 @ 4.12% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.76% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 1.84% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.59% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.07%
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 46.22%
1-1 @ 11.98%
0-0 @ 6.7% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.36% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.24%
0-1 @ 7.76% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 6.94% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.49% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.68% (0.008 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.07% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.74% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 28.53%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Boston 3-1 Alfreton
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 3-0 Blyth Spartans
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Walsall 1-0 Alfreton
Tuesday, December 12 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Alfreton 0-0 Walsall
Tuesday, December 5 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Alfreton 0-1 Brackley Town
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 1-1 Chester
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 0-0 Scunthorpe
Saturday, December 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Spennymoor 2-3 Buxton
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Chorley 3-2 Buxton
Tuesday, December 12 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 0-1 Southport
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 2-1 Hereford
Tuesday, November 21 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Buxton 1-2 Farsley Celtic
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League North


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