SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 57.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Hereford United had a probability of 20.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for a Hereford United win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Buxton | Draw | Hereford United |
57.53% ( 1.44) | 22.47% ( -0.63) | 20.01% ( -0.8) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( 0.79) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.57% ( 1.67) | 45.43% ( -1.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.23% ( 1.57) | 67.77% ( -1.57) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.47% ( 1.08) | 15.53% ( -1.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.54% ( 1.96) | 44.46% ( -1.96) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.28% ( 0.13) | 36.72% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.49% ( 0.13) | 73.51% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Buxton | Draw | Hereford United |
| 1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 6.14% ( 0.24)3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 2.86% ( 0.21)4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.12)5-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.44% Total : 57.52% | 1-1 @ 10.64% ( -0.32) 0-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.47% | 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.4) 1-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.71% Total : 20.01% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Tamworth | 20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 41 |
| 3 | South Shields | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 36 |
| 4 | Brackley Town | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
| 6 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 32 |
| 7 | Chorley | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| 8 | Chester FCChester | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 31 |
| 9 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 31 |
| 10 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 24 | 8 | 29 |
| 11 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 29 |
| 12 | Boston UnitedBoston | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 29 |
| 13 | SouthportSouthport | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 33 | -9 | 28 |
| 14 | Blyth Spartans | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 27 |
| 15 | Buxton | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 26 |
| 16 | Warrington Town | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 26 |
| 17 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 26 |
| 18 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 25 |
| 19 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 25 |
| 20 | Rushall Olympic | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 24 |
| 21 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 22 |
| 22 | Darlington | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 16 |
| 23 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 19 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
| 24 | Bishop's StortfordBishop's Stortford | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 14 |
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