SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 39.26%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Buxton |
39.26% ( -0.94) | 27.52% ( 0.36) | 33.22% ( 0.58) |
| Both teams to score 48.94% ( -0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.31% ( -1.28) | 56.69% ( 1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.35% ( -1.04) | 77.65% ( 1.04) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( -1.13) | 28.15% ( 1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.17% ( -1.46) | 63.83% ( 1.46) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.11% ( -0.26) | 31.89% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.67% ( -0.3) | 68.33% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Buxton |
| 1-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.18)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 3.48% ( -0.19)3-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.83% Total : 39.25% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( 0.43)2-2 @ 4.71% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.52% | 0-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.81% Total : 33.21% |
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