SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 45.94%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Buxton | Draw | Chorley |
45.94% ( -1.29) | 25.98% ( 0.08) | 28.08% ( 1.21) |
| Both teams to score 51.35% ( 0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.45% ( 0.41) | 52.55% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.79% ( 0.35) | 74.21% ( -0.34) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.17% ( -0.42) | 22.84% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.44% ( -0.62) | 56.56% ( 0.63) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.55% ( 1.18) | 33.45% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.91% ( 1.27) | 70.09% ( -1.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Buxton | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 11.28% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.22)3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 45.94% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.99% Total : 25.98% | 0-1 @ 8.37% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 2.47% ( 0.16)2-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.67% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.4% Total : 28.08% |
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