SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Kidderminster Harriers had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Kidderminster Harriers win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chorley | Draw | Kidderminster Harriers |
39.36% ( -0.04) | 26.37% ( -0.13) | 34.26% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.75% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.04% ( 0.55) | 51.95% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.3% ( 0.48) | 73.7% ( -0.48) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.13% ( 0.23) | 25.87% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.15% ( 0.31) | 60.84% ( -0.31) |
| Kidderminster Harriers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.16% ( 0.38) | 28.84% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.3% ( 0.46) | 64.7% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chorley | Draw | Kidderminster Harriers |
| 1-0 @ 10.08% ( -0.16) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 39.35% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 1.01% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 34.26% |
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