Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Kidderminster Harriers had a probability of 31.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Kidderminster Harriers win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Chorley in this match.
0.05) 
-0.02) 
