Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Scunthorpe United win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
