Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Chorley in this match.
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