Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gloucester City win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 31.79% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gloucester City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
-0.04) 
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