Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 41.61%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.
