SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ebbsfleet win with a probability of 55.82%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 21.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ebbsfleet win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.84%) and 0-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Hemel Hempstead Town win it was 1-0 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hemel Hempstead Town | Draw | Ebbsfleet |
21.03% ( 0.13) | 23.14% ( 0.03) | 55.82% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 52.85% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.99% ( 0.04) | 47.01% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.74% ( 0.03) | 69.26% ( -0.03) |
| Hemel Hempstead Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.42% ( 0.16) | 36.58% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.63% ( 0.16) | 73.37% ( -0.16) |
| Ebbsfleet Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.33% ( -0.05) | 16.67% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.47% ( -0.08) | 46.53% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hemel Hempstead Town | Draw | Ebbsfleet |
| 1-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.75% Total : 21.03% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.14% | 0-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.84% ( -0)0-2 @ 9.79% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.88% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 5.85% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.63% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 2.62% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)1-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 55.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 81 | 36 | 45 | 81 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 65 | 38 | 27 | 66 |
| 3 | Braintree TownBraintree | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 61 |
| 4 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 64 | 47 | 17 | 60 |
| 5 | Oxford CityOxford City | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 61 | 44 | 17 | 60 |
| 6 | Worthing | 36 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 66 | 51 | 15 | 60 |
| 7 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 35 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 56 |
| 8 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 54 |
| 9 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 52 |
| 10 | Farnborough Town | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 52 |
| 11 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 36 | 16 | 4 | 16 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 52 |
| 12 | Bath City | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 43 | 5 | 49 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 49 |
| 14 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 44 |
| 15 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 42 |
| 16 | Slough TownSlough | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 64 | -24 | 37 |
| 17 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 36 |
| 18 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 68 | -20 | 35 |
| 19 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 32 |
| 20 | Cheshunt | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39 | 60 | -21 | 32 |
| 21 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 31 |
| 22 | Weymouth | 33 | 9 | 4 | 20 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 31 |
| 23 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Concord Rangers | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 28 |
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