Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hemel Hempstead Town win with a probability of 47.83%. A win for Tonbridge Angels had a probability of 27.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hemel Hempstead Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Tonbridge Angels win was 0-1 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hemel Hempstead Town would win this match.
