Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
