Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Chesterfield had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Chesterfield win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
