SM
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Bulgaria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belarus win with a probability of 35.16%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 33.51% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belarus win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.98%) and 1-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (13.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Belarus |
33.51% ( -0.62) | 31.33% ( 0.09) | 35.16% ( 0.52) |
| Both teams to score 38.76% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 30.95% ( -0.27) | 69.05% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.38% ( -0.18) | 86.62% ( 0.17) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.67% ( -0.6) | 38.33% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.91% ( -0.58) | 75.08% ( 0.58) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.84% ( 0.21) | 37.15% ( -0.21) |
