Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Linfield win with a probability of 36.9%. A win for Crusaders had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Linfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.56%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Crusaders win was 1-0 (11.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Linfield would win this match.
