Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Dungannon Swifts had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.84%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Dungannon Swifts win it was 2-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.
