Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-23s win with a probability of 42.45%. A win for Birmingham City Under-23s had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.21%) and 2-0 (5.48%). The likeliest Birmingham City Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-23s would win this match.
