Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley Under-23s win with a probability of 48.26%. A win for Newcastle United Under-23s had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.63%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Newcastle United Under-23s win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley Under-23s would win this match.
