Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-23s win with a probability of 40.71%. A win for Southampton Under-23s had a probability of 37.32% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.09%) and 3-1 (5%). The likeliest Southampton Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
