All eyes should be on the opening 15 minutes in this match; Villa have conceded a league-high 22% of their goals in that period, while only Man City have scored a higher share of their goals in that spell than Burnley.
If Villa do survive that period then their chances of success should greatly improve - you have to go back to December 5 for the last time they won a game in which they conceded - but Burnley will be fighting for their lives and it is difficult to look past their recent form.
The new manager bounce may not last until the end of the season, but a home tie against a Villa side that is now effectively safe from relegation is about as kind a fixture as Burnley could hope for at this stage of the season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 26.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (8.76%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
