Man City
5 - 2
Southampton

De Bruyne (15', 59'), Mahrez (40', 55'), Gundogan (45+3')
Fernandinho (82')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Ward-Prowse (25' pen.), Adams (56')

Build‑up

Shaun Goater slams Phil Foden penalty incident

Pep Guardiola baffled by VAR after Man City denied penalty

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 73.67%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 10.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 3-0 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.1%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	Southampton
73.67%	15.54%	10.79%

Both teams to score 54.95%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.79%

32.22%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.18%

53.82%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.51%

7.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

73.11%

26.9%

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.39%

40.61%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.8%

77.21%

Score Analysis

Manchester City 73.67%

Southampton 10.79%

Draw 15.54%

Manchester City	Draw	Southampton
2-0 @ 10.21% 2-1 @ 9.21% 3-0 @ 8.83% 3-1 @ 7.96% 1-0 @ 7.88% 4-0 @ 5.72% 4-1 @ 5.16% 3-2 @ 3.59% 5-0 @ 2.97% 5-1 @ 2.67% 4-2 @ 2.32% 6-0 @ 1.28% 5-2 @ 1.21% 6-1 @ 1.16% Other @ 3.52% Total : 73.67%	1-1 @ 7.1% 2-2 @ 4.15% 0-0 @ 3.04% 3-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 0.17% Total : 15.54%	1-2 @ 3.2% 0-1 @ 2.74% 2-3 @ 1.25% 0-2 @ 1.24% 1-3 @ 0.96% Other @ 1.41% Total : 10.79%