While Maritimo have struggled for results, they will draw inspiration from their solid record against Boavista as they are unbeaten in their last seven league encounters between the sides. Petit's side have run out of steam in recent weeks and we are backing the hosts to scrap a narrow win on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
-0.04) 
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