SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 48%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 29.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
48% ( 0.73) | 22.89% ( 0.03) | 29.1% ( -0.75) |
| Both teams to score 62.44% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.69% ( -0.61) | 38.3% ( 0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.41% ( -0.65) | 60.58% ( 0.65) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.71% ( 0.03) | 16.28% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.16% ( 0.06) | 45.84% ( -0.06) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.59% ( -0.78) | 25.4% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.78% ( -1.09) | 60.21% ( 1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.58% Total : 48% | 1-1 @ 10.28% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.3% Total : 22.89% | 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.48% Total : 29.1% |
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