When you couple Braga's exceptional home form with Portimonense's woeful away record, all the signs point towards a straightforward win for Os Arsenalistas at the Estadio Municipal de Braga.
Given that Braga have won 10 of their last 13 home league games – keeping nine clean sheets in the process – we expect Jorge's men to notch another shutout victory in front of their fans.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 76.06%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.66%) and 3-0 (10.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Portimonense win it was 0-1 (3.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
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