In reality, there is very little for either team to play for in this match given the extent of Fiorentina's four-goal lead. Braga will need to score at least once during the early exchanges to make things remotely interesting.
As such, we can see the match petering out during the second half, with both managers likely to be content with avoiding defeat and preserving their players' legs ahead of important away matches in their respective domestic divisions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 48.95%. A win for Braga had a probability of 27.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
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