Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.43%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 31.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
