Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 44.36%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
