Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for FC Ufa had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-2 (7.92%). The likeliest FC Ufa win was 1-0 (11.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
