SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 56.25%. A win for Al Ittihad had a probability of 23.89% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Al Ittihad win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Ittihad |
56.25% ( 0.56) | 19.86% ( 0.15) | 23.89% ( -0.71) |
| Both teams to score 68.72% ( -1.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.98% ( -1.55) | 28.02% ( 1.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.23% ( -1.95) | 48.76% ( 1.94) |
| Al-Nassr Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.78% ( -0.36) | 10.21% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.48% ( -0.81) | 33.52% ( 0.8) |
| Al Ittihad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.54% ( -1.37) | 23.46% ( 1.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.52% ( -2.02) | 57.47% ( 2.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al-Nassr | Draw | Al Ittihad |
| 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.24% ( 0.39)1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.42)3-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.23)4-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.14)4-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.13)5-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.08)5-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.75% Total : 56.26% | 1-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.3) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0.11)3-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.57% Total : 19.86% | 1-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.18)2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.52% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.15% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.83% Total : 23.89% |
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