Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Edinburgh City win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Edinburgh City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Edinburgh City would win this match.
