Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stenhousemuir win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 35.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stenhousemuir win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
0.01) 
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