Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 30.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.93%) and 2-1 (7.72%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (11.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.09) 
