Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 35.84%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.25%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (12.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Las Palmas would win this match.
0.1) 
-0.01) 
