Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eibar win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eibar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.43%) and 1-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (10.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eibar would win this match.
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