Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 49.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
0.64) 
-0.78) 
