Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 41.54%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Real Oviedo had a probability of 28.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (7.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Real Oviedo win it was 0-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.